Big Daddy Data

Sri Lanka faced a severe economic crisis in 2022. Inflation hit 70% in September, the highest since independence. This was due to monetary financing, currency depreciation, and rising global commodity prices.

The cost-of-living crisis hit the nation hard. The government introduced austerity policies and fiscal tightening to stabilize the economy. They also implemented price controls and raised interest rates to curb inflation.

Despite these efforts, GDP was expected to shrink by 2.3% in FY2023. A recovery of 4.4% was projected for FY2024. The agricultural sector showed strength, with exports rising in early 2024.

The crisis deeply affected the population. In 2024, 23.4% lived below $3.65 per day. Another 64.3% lived on less than $6.85 per day. Unemployment stayed around 4.7% in 2022 and 2023.

The government worked to boost exports and attract foreign investment. They also managed external debt, which was 43% of GDP in 2024.

Key Takeaways

• Inflation in Sri Lanka peaked at 70% in September 2022, the highest since independence.
• The government implemented austerity measures, fiscal tightening, and price controls to address the economic crisis.
• GDP growth was forecasted to contract by 2.3% in FY2023, with a projected recovery of 4.4% in FY2024.
• The agricultural sector showed resilience, with exports surging in the first half of 2024.
• Poverty rates remained high, with 64.3% of the population living on less than $6.85 per day in 2024.

Sri Lanka’s Economic Crisis and Record-High Inflation

In 2022, Sri Lanka faced a severe economic crisis. Inflation peaked at an alarming 70%. The nation’s vulnerabilities worsened due to policy mistakes and global shocks.

Foreign exchange reserves depleted rapidly. This led to widespread social unrest and political instability. Citizens struggled with shortages of essential goods and services.

Preexisting Vulnerabilities and Policy Missteps

Sri Lanka’s economy was already fragile. Droughts, political crises, and terrorist attacks had taken their toll. Unsustainable policies, like significant tax cuts, made things worse.

The country entered the pandemic unprepared. It had thin reserves, high debt, and limited fiscal space. These factors left Sri Lanka vulnerable to economic shocks.

Impact of Global Shocks and Depleted Reserves

The war in Ukraine in early 2022 devastated Sri Lanka’s economy. With empty reserves, the nation faced a debt default. Importing essential goods became difficult, causing fuel shortages and power cuts.

Despite challenges, Sri Lankans united during Vesak celebrations. They found hope and unity amid the crisis.

Social Unrest and Political Instability

Economic hardships led to social unrest and political instability. Protests erupted, demanding solutions to shortages and government accountability. These events resulted in leadership changes.

Some sectors showed resilience amid the crisis. Apparel, textiles, and coconut-based products grew in September 2024. OMP Sri Lanka reported this positive trend.

Inflation Peaks at 70% in 2022; Government Implements Austerity Measures

Sri Lanka faced a severe economic crisis in 2022. Inflation skyrocketed to 70%, driven by monetary financing and rupee depreciation. Global commodity prices surged, followed by administrative price hikes.

Essential goods became scarce, and many lost their jobs. The tourism industry was hit particularly hard. Schools closed, and a food crisis loomed due to fertilizer shortages.

Causes of Hyperinflation: Monetary Financing and Currency Depreciation

Sri Lanka’s high public debt exceeded 70% of GDP. Low fiscal revenue made the country vulnerable to external shocks. Decreased government spending and poor financial management led to lower productivity.

Government’s Response: Fiscal Tightening and Price Controls

The government introduced austerity measures to tackle the crisis. These included tax increases and spending cuts. The central bank tightened monetary policy to curb inflation.

Temporary import suspensions were used to stabilize the economy. However, these actions increased the tax burden on individuals and businesses. State-owned enterprises suffered substantial losses, requiring government intervention.

The government’s response aimed to restore financial stability. It faced challenges from strikes and protests over salary demands. The goal was to start a disinflation process and economic recovery.

Sri Lanka’s export sector has shown impressive growth in early 2023. Export earnings increased by 15%, boosting foreign exchange reserves and economic recovery prospects. This growth has improved Sri Lanka’s trade surplus and overall economic indicators.

The export surge stems from diverse efforts. The government, exporters, and industry partners worked to expand markets and improve product competitiveness. Key sectors like apparel, tea, spices, and value-added manufacturing contributed significantly to this export growth.

This positive performance has benefited the entire economy. It has led to better foreign exchange reserves and a more stable exchange rate. Investor confidence has also improved as a result.

Government support has been crucial in this export-led recovery. Trade facilitation, market access initiatives, and targeted incentives have all played important roles.

Maintaining export growth remains a top priority for Sri Lanka. The country aims to diversify its exports further and enter new markets. Attracting foreign investment in export-oriented industries is also a key goal.

With effective policies and support, Sri Lanka can use exports to drive economic growth. This approach positions the country for continued development in the coming years.

Key Takeaways

• Sri Lanka’s exports surged by 15% in the first half of 2023, strengthening the economy.
• Improved foreign exchange reserves and trade surplus contribute to economic recovery.
• Diversification of export markets and products has been crucial to export growth.
• Government support measures have played a vital role in boosting exports.
• Sustaining export growth remains a top priority for Sri Lanka’s economic development.

Global Trade Trends Turn Positive in Q1 2024

Global trade saw a positive shift in Q1 2024. Merchandise trade grew 2.3% year-on-year, while services trade increased by 8%. This surge was driven by recovering export industries in China, India, and the US.

Favorable trade policies and eased pandemic restrictions boosted growth. Major economies implemented measures to support their export sectors. These actions helped revive international trade activity.

China, India, and US Drive Global Trade Growth

China, India, and the US led global trade growth in Q1 2024. China’s exports jumped 9%, India’s rose 7%, and the US saw a 3% increase. These nations benefited from rebounding global demand.

Europe’s exports remained flat, while Africa’s fell by 5%. This highlights the uneven nature of the global trade recovery. Some regions are bouncing back faster than others.

South-South Trade Sets the Pace

South-South trade outpaced developed countries in Q1 2024. Both imports and exports between developing nations grew by 2%. This trend shows the rising importance of cooperation among emerging economies.

Developing countries are investing in export industries and diversifying partners. As a result, South-South trade is becoming crucial for global growth. Trade policies that support this trend are gaining traction.

Green Energy and AI Sectors See Strong Surge

Green energy and AI sectors experienced robust growth in Q1 2024. High-performance server trade, vital for AI, increased by 25% compared to Q1 2023. Electric vehicle trade also jumped 25%.

These sectors reflect global priorities in sustainability and innovation. As countries focus on these areas, they’re expected to drive international trade growth. The trend highlights shifting global economic priorities.

UK Emerges as Key Market for Turkish Exports

Turkey’s exports are booming, with the UK becoming a major destination in early 2024. The UK ranked fourth for Turkish exports in January and February. Shipments totaled $1.95 billion, a 15.2% increase from last year.

The automotive industry drove this growth, with UK exports reaching $694.5 million. This marks a 37.1% increase. Strong bilateral trade relations boosted Turkey’s exports to the UK.

Trade volume between the two nations hit nearly $19 billion in 2023. This trend is expected to strengthen Turkey’s international trade position. Several Turkish provinces have boosted exports to the UK.

Istanbul, Kocaeli, Bursa, Sakarya, and Izmir lead the way. These trade collaborations benefit both the automotive sector and overall economic growth. The UK remains a key partner for Turkey’s expanding export markets.

Turkey’s economy has shown resilience, with exports surging 15% in early 2023. Real household consumption grew by 15.3% in 2021. Despite challenges, Turkey’s young population and reforms offer growth opportunities.

As bilateral trade with the UK flourishes, Turkey strengthens its global role. This fosters mutually beneficial trade collaborations. The UK remains a key export destination with potential for future growth.