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Sri Lanka’s foreign reserves have bounced back to $5.5 billion by April 2024. This signals a positive trend for the nation’s economic stabilization efforts. The recovery in currency reserves is expected to boost the country’s financial stability.

The World Bank and Asian Development Bank predict positive growth for Sri Lanka in 2024. They project a moderately optimistic outlook over the medium term. The current account may show a slight surplus.

This surplus is likely due to controlled import growth. The revival of tourism and remittances inflows also plays a key role. These factors are vital for strengthening foreign reserves and improving import coverage.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has supported Sri Lanka’s economic recovery. Their Extended Fund Facility has helped build up foreign reserves. The government’s debt restructuring efforts have also been crucial.

These actions have created a more stable financial environment. They have boosted confidence among investors and international partners.

Economic Recovery and Stabilization

Sri Lanka’s economy is showing signs of recovery. GDP growth is projected to turn positive in 2024. The World Bank forecasts a 2.2% growth rate for 2024.

This recovery is backed by the IMF’s $2.9 billion bailout package. The package aims to stabilize the economy and promote reforms.

Inflation Expected to Remain Benign in Medium Term

Inflation in Sri Lanka has dropped significantly. Year-on-year headline inflation fell to 1.3% in September 2023. It rose to 4.0% by the end of 2023 due to supply factors.

Core inflation also decreased, showing low demand pressures. Inflation may change due to new VAT rules in January 2024. However, it should stay low as demand remains weak.

Current Account Surplus Driven by Tourism and Remittances

Sri Lanka’s current account surplus is growing. This is due to strong tourism and remittance inflows. Tourism arrivals topped 700,000 in the first 14 weeks of 2024.

Remittances increased to $572 million in March 2024. These inflows are vital for the country’s balance of payments and foreign reserves.

The boost in tourism and remittances helps offset the economic damage. The long crisis has hurt household finances and business activity. As the economy stabilizes, confidence is expected to grow.

Indicator	2023	2024 (Projected)
GDP Growth	-3.5%	2.2%
Inflation (Year-end)	4.0%	4.5%
Tourism Arrivals (Jan-Mar)	270,000	700,000
Remittances (March)	$475 million	$572 million

Foreign Reserves Rebound to $5.5 Billion by April 2024

Sri Lanka’s official reserves have shown a remarkable recovery. They rose from $1.9 billion in late 2022 to $5.5 billion by April 2024. This excludes a swap facility from the People’s Bank of China.

The IMF Extended Fund Facility of $2.9 billion has played a key role. Approved in March 2023, it has greatly boosted the country’s reserve position.

Improved Balance of Payments Position

Sri Lanka faces a growing trade deficit due to rising import spending. However, net inflows from the services sector, especially tourism, have helped offset this.

A new e-visa system and the Pekoe Trail are set to boost tourism. These initiatives, backed by the EU and USAID, should improve the balance of payments.

IMF Extended Fund Facility Supporting Reserve Buildup

The IMF Extended Fund Facility has been crucial for Sri Lanka’s reserve buildup. The country’s commitment to economic reforms has secured this vital support.

Sri Lanka continues to work with the IMF and other partners. This collaboration is expected to strengthen its reserve position and enhance economic stability.

Debt Restructuring Efforts Paving Way for Financial Stability

Sri Lanka is negotiating debt restructuring with international bondholders. These talks are key to restoring debt sustainability and regaining market access.

The government is working hard to reach agreements with creditors. These efforts are creating a better environment for economic growth and investment.

Indicator	Value
Foreign Reserves (April 2024)	$5.5 billion
IMF Extended Fund Facility	$2.9 billion
GDP Growth Forecast (2024)	2.6%

Conclusion

Sri Lanka’s economy is looking up. Foreign reserves are expected to reach $5.5 billion by April 2024. This signals a positive shift in the nation’s economic outlook.

The country’s GDP growth forecast for 2024 has been revised to 2.6%. This contributes to the South Asian subregion’s expansion. The subregion is projected to grow by 6.3% in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025.

However, risks remain. These include the need for deep debt restructuring and potential reform fatigue. Upcoming elections and the recent economic crisis also pose challenges.

These risks are high in Sri Lanka and other South Asian economies. They face high public debt, weak external reserves, and geopolitical tensions.

Implementing the IMF’s structural reform program is crucial. It will boost investor confidence and attract fresh capital inflows. This will support a stronger economic recovery in the medium term.

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka has kept the policy rate at 6 percent. Their medium-term inflation target is 5 percent. Private sector credit growth and lower non-performing loans show a stabilizing financial sector.

The current account deficit is narrowing. Foreign exchange reserves now cover over 4 months of projected imports. Sri Lanka’s economic prospects are improving, despite challenges on the road to recovery.

The Sri Lankan stock market bounced back strongly in early 2024. The All Share Price Index (ASPI) jumped by 15%. This surge shows growing investor trust in the country’s economic stability.

The Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) saw busy trading days. Daily turnover ranged from Rs. 3.3 billion to Rs. 5.3 billion. Nine straight positive sessions highlighted the market’s strong performance.

The blue-chip S&P SL20 index also grew, rising 2.41% to 2,794.15 points. Better-than-expected company earnings fueled this growth. The nation’s economy looks promising, with GDP growth predicted to hit 2-3% by year-end.

Offboard deals on specific stocks made up 15% of total turnover. These deals involved companies like Watawala Plantations and Commercial Bank of Ceylon. This shows strong investor interest in these firms.

The bull market proves Sri Lanka’s economic resilience. It’s attracting both local and foreign investors. As the rally continues, it’s expected to boost overall economic growth.

Stock Market Recovers, ASPI Gains 15% in First Half of 2024

The Sri Lankan stock market has shown impressive growth in 2024’s first half. The All-Share Price Index (ASPI) jumped 15%, while the S&P 20 rose 19%. Lower inflation rates and interest rates have boosted investor confidence.

Inflation Eases and Interest Rates Decline, Boosting Investor Confidence

Falling inflation and interest rates have fueled the stock market’s recovery. Investors now feel more optimistic about listed companies’ future. Quarterly interest costs for core companies have dropped significantly since 2020.

Foreign Inflows Contribute to Market Rally

Foreign portfolio investment has driven the market rally. As the economy improves, foreign investors have become net buyers. Completing external debt restructuring is vital for market sentiment.

Sticking to the IMF reform program is crucial for sustained growth. Any deviation may create uncertainty and discourage foreign investor participation.

Key Sectors Like Capital Goods and Diversified Financials Lead the Surge

Capital Goods and Diversified Financials sectors are leading the market recovery. These companies have reported strong earnings growth and improved profitability. The banking sector is expected to see a re-rating.

Core earnings will be driven by loan growth amid positive GDP expectations. Non-Banking Financial Institutions should benefit from the current declining interest rate cycle.

Sector	Allocation
Banks/NBFI	30%
Conglomerates	25%
Manufacturing	20%
Consumer	15%
Leisure	10%

Increased trading volume and investor participation have supported market growth. Small to mid-cap companies may outperform large caps due to falling fixed-income yields. CSE earnings are expected to grow by 15.0% in 2024.

The ASPI target is set at 13,800 levels by year-end. The Sri Lankan stock market is ready for further growth and recovery.

Factors Driving the Bull Market

Sri Lanka’s stock market bull run stems from improved economic outlook and investor sentiment. Successful debt restructuring talks led to an IMF agreement for a $2.90 billion Extended Fund Facility. This boosted investor confidence, showing the government’s commitment to economic reforms.

Government reforms and the IMF program have stabilized the macroeconomic environment. Inflation dropped to about 35% in April 2023 from over 70%. Market-based pricing for fuel and cooking gas has aided the economic turnaround.

Sri Lanka has made progress in overcoming its economic crisis. The tourism sector’s rebound has been a key factor in 2023’s economic growth.

Lower Inflation and Interest Rates Spark Multiple Expansion for Equities

Falling inflation and interest rates have fueled the Sri Lankan stock market bull run. Inflation is expected to hit single digits by Q3 2023. This has made investors more optimistic about the country’s economic future.

Lower interest rates have led to higher stock prices. Investors are willing to pay more due to improved earnings visibility. The Sri Lankan Rupee gained about 10% in February 2023 alone.

Successful Debt Restructuring Negotiations Improve Economic Outlook

Debt restructuring talks have been a game-changer for Sri Lanka’s economy. Foreign debt was 55% of total debt in early 2022. The IMF agreement and fiscal plans have greatly improved the economic outlook.

This has boosted various sectors, like Financial Services and Leisure. Maldivian Resorts and Colombo Hotels have performed well. The Group’s Bunkering business has seen higher profits from fuel prices and volumes.

Government Reforms and IMF Extended Fund Facility Program Support Recovery

Government reforms and the IMF program provide a strong base for Sri Lanka’s recovery. These measures address macroeconomic imbalances and set the stage for future growth. The Group reported 17% EBITDA growth to Rs.45.74 billion despite challenges.

The Supermarket business showed resilience with 45% EBITDA growth to Rs.7.46 billion. Ongoing reforms and fiscal discipline are expected to brighten economic prospects. This provides a solid foundation for the continuing bull market in Sri Lankan stocks.

The World Bank has approved a $1 billion loan for Sri Lanka’s economic recovery. This aid package will support debt restructuring and promote key economic reforms. It aims to help the country overcome its severe financial crisis.

Sri Lanka has been facing its worst economic crisis since independence. The funds will help create a fair economy. They will also protect vulnerable groups during recovery.

President Anura Kumara Dissanayake took office last month amid public unrest. He has promised to stabilize the economy and ease citizens’ hardships. The World Bank’s assistance is crucial in supporting these efforts.

World Bank Approves $200 Million Loan to Support Sri Lanka’s Economic Reforms

The World Bank has approved a new $200 million loan to support Sri Lanka’s economic reforms. This follows the country’s worst financial crisis in recent history. The loan adds to an earlier $500 million provided after the 2022 economic crash.

President Anura Kumara Dissanayake welcomed the new loan. He said it would help create a fair economy for all Sri Lankans. The funds will support reforms to boost growth and build resilience.

New Loan Follows Earlier $500 Million World Bank Loan After 2022 Economic Crash

The latest loan adds to the $500 million given after Sri Lanka’s 2022 crisis. During this time, the country defaulted on its external debt. The total $700 million in loans aim to stabilize the economy and support reforms.

Loan to Help Foster an Equitable Economy and Protect the Vulnerable

The new loan focuses on building a fairer economy for all. It includes measures to strengthen social safety nets. This will help protect those hit hardest by the economic downturn.

Loan Amount	Purpose
$200 million	Support economic reforms, foster equitable growth
$500 million	Immediate support after 2022 economic crash

With this World Bank support, Sri Lanka aims to boost its economic recovery. The country plans to implement needed reforms and build a stable economy. The path ahead is tough, but these loans offer hope for a stronger future.

Sri Lanka’s Economic Crisis and Road to Recovery

Sri Lanka faced a severe economic meltdown in 2022. It led to the country’s first external debt default amid its worst financial crisis. The economy shrank by about 8%, with food inflation soaring over 90%.

Authorities reported an inflation rate of around 50%. This showed a reduction but still indicated significant economic strain on consumers. Months of protests over shortages of essentials led to President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s ouster.

The World Food Programme reported that one-third of Sri Lankan families faced food insecurity. The government raised electricity tariffs by 75% in August 2022 and 66% in February 2023. These measures aimed to address the ongoing crisis.

New President Anura Kumara Dissanayake Elected on Platform of Reversing Tax Hikes and Raising Public Sector Wages

Leftist President Anura Kumara Dissanayake won the election due to public resentment. He promised to reverse steep tax hikes and raise public servant salaries. He also pledged to renegotiate an unpopular $2.9 billion IMF bailout.

Despite these efforts, poverty has increased for four straight years. Industrial indicators remain weak. Cement consumption is low, and favorable base effects driving disinflation are fading. Housing, utilities, and fuel are the main drivers of headline inflation.

Economic Indicator	Status
Growth	Turned positive in H2 2023
Yield Curve	Inverted yield curve normalized somewhat in early 2024
Private Sector Credit	Expanded due to reduction in interest rates
Tourism	Remains below pre-COVID levels
Rupee	Gradually appreciating
Net Foreign Assets	Improving in the banking system
Primary Balance	Surplus achieved through new revenue measures and curtailed expenditure
Domestic Interest Payments	Risen sharply
Labor Force Participation	Continues to worsen in urban areas
Household Debt	Increasing to meet daily food requirements

Sri Lanka secured a $3 billion loan from the IMF over four years. This marks the country’s 17th deal with the IMF since 1965. The loan approval includes conditions to address corruption and support economic stability.

Sri Lanka Secures $1 Billion Loan from World Bank for Economic Recovery

Sri Lanka has secured $1 billion in World Bank assistance to support its economic recovery efforts. The loans aim to facilitate crucial policy reforms and foster economic stabilization. This financial boost comes after the 2022 crisis.

The World Bank’s package includes a recent $200 million loan. This follows an earlier $500 million loan provided after the 2022 economic crash. These funds will help Sri Lanka implement reforms and protect vulnerable populations.

Sri Lanka has shown signs of economic recovery in 2023. The country’s real GDP grew by 1.6 percent year-on-year in the third quarter. This marks the first expansion in six quarters.

Inflation eased to 4% in December 2023 from 51.7% in January. Foreign reserves increased to $4.4 billion at the end of 2023. This is up from $1.9 billion in December 2022.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has also committed substantial support to Sri Lanka. They’ve provided $11.8 billion in loans, grants, and technical assistance.

Economic Indicator	2022	2023
GDP Growth	-7.8%	-2.3%
Inflation (December)	–	4%
Foreign Reserves (December)	$1.9 billion	$4.4 billion
Poverty Rate	25%	–

The World Bank’s support is vital for Sri Lanka’s economic recovery. It focuses on key policy reforms and economic stability. The country aims to build a more resilient and fair economy for its citizens.

Conclusion

The World Bank’s $1 billion loan approval is a game-changer for Sri Lanka’s economic recovery. This support is crucial as the country works to stabilize finances and restructure debt. President Anura Kumara Dissanayake leads the implementation of growth-oriented policies.

Sri Lanka’s economic outlook shows promising signs. Foreign currency reserves have reached $2.69 billion, increasing 23.5% from September 2022 to February 2023. However, challenges remain with a high debt-to-GDP ratio and the aftermath of sovereign debt default in 2022.

The new government’s reform agenda aims to create an equitable economy and protect vulnerable populations. These measures are vital for addressing challenges and promoting sustainable growth. Education reforms focusing on digitization and modernization will boost long-term development.

Continued support from the World Bank and other partners is essential for Sri Lanka’s recovery. The country must balance reforms with public concerns, especially after recent protests. Transparent governance and inclusive growth are key to ensuring a brighter future for all Sri Lankans.